RESEARCH THEMES
Eco-evolutionary spatial modeling: linking genes, traits, and climate thresholds
I integrate eco-evolutionary processes into spatial models to improve predictions of how forests will respond to climate change. Most ecological models assume static trait–climate relationships across species’ ranges. My research challenges this assumption by incorporating adaptive genetic variation, population structure, and trait plasticity into predictive spatial models. By combining plant functional trait data from field studies and common garden experiments, I link adaptive genes, phenology, and genetic diversity to environmental gradients to identify local adaptation and selection gradients. Including genetic population structure and other types of variation in models can change our projections of future suitable habitat for species, improving our predictions of species range shifts and evolutionary trajectories— while connecting these processes to ecosystem function, carbon and water cycling, and biodiversity dynamics.
I integrate eco-evolutionary processes into spatial models to improve predictions of how forests will respond to climate change. Most ecological models assume static trait–climate relationships across species’ ranges. My research challenges this assumption by incorporating adaptive genetic variation, population structure, and trait plasticity into predictive spatial models. By combining plant functional trait data from field studies and common garden experiments, I link adaptive genes, phenology, and genetic diversity to environmental gradients to identify local adaptation and selection gradients. Including genetic population structure and other types of variation in models can change our projections of future suitable habitat for species, improving our predictions of species range shifts and evolutionary trajectories— while connecting these processes to ecosystem function, carbon and water cycling, and biodiversity dynamics.
Cross-scale forest ecophysiology & phenology
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Forest function varies across spatial scales — for example, from leaf-level physiology to crown structure. To explore these patterns, I integrate UAV-based thermal, hyperspectral, and LiDAR data with field measurements, dual-isotope analyses, and phenological monitoring to map plant trait variation across spatial resolutions and examine how it shapes water-use, thermoregulation, and phenology. Tropical forests have year-round growing seasons and can appear uniformly green at coarse spatial scales. I use these complementary approaches to uncover hidden phenological dynamics among diverse species. This approach allows me to identify environmental drivers of phenological patterns, quantify variation in plant water-use efficiency under fluctuating conditions, and connect physiological mechanisms to spatial patterns of resilience.
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Climate refugia & conservation applications
An overarching goal of my research is to map climate change refugia for genetic diversity and identify landscape and climatic thresholds where trait evolution is most likely to occur and emerging ecosystem function is most likely to change. By predicting where climate-resilient traits and genes are concentrated, my research can provide actionable guidance for adaptive forest management and biodiversity conservation.
An overarching goal of my research is to map climate change refugia for genetic diversity and identify landscape and climatic thresholds where trait evolution is most likely to occur and emerging ecosystem function is most likely to change. By predicting where climate-resilient traits and genes are concentrated, my research can provide actionable guidance for adaptive forest management and biodiversity conservation.
FIELD PHOTOGRAPHS
PUBLICATIONS & CV
Bayliss, SLJ, SC Turner. (2026) Ecology is not at risk of a methodological balance crisis. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02706-w
Bayliss, SLJ, C Anderson, ML Dudley, CM Litton, C Giardina, S Pau. (2026). Decoupled litterfall and canopy signals reveal species-specific leaf phenology in a wet Hawaiian tropical forest. Biotropica 58, no. 4: e70237.
(preprint) SLJ Bayliss, IM Ware, JA Schweitzer, JK Bailey. Climate change velocity drives rapid evolution of foliar phenology in trailing edge populations. BioRxiv doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.04.27.719373
Pau, S, R Slapikas, C Ho, SLJ Bayliss, RC Donnelly, A Abdullahi, BR Helliker, JB Nippert, WJ Riley, CJ Still, ER Wedel, DM Griffith. (2025) Hyperspectral leaf reflectance of grasses varies with evolutionary lineage more than with site. Ecosphere 16(4): https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70257
Bayliss, SLJ, EN Broadbent, AM Almeyda Zambrano, S Cordell, S Pau. (2025) Scale-dependent responses to environmental fluctuations in tropical tree species' crown temperatures. Communications Earth & Environment 6(36). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02030-9
Love, SJ, JD Edwards, CN Barnes, TW d'Entremont, AM Hord, AG Nytko, NB Sero, SLJ Bayliss, SN Kivlin, JK Bailey. (2023) Identifying ecological and evolutionary research targets and risks in climate change studies to break barriers to broad inference. PLOS Climate 2(12): https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pclm.0000320
Bayliss, SLJ, LO Mueller, IM Ware, JA Schweitzer, JK Bailey. (2022) Stacked distribution models predict climate-driven loss of variation in leaf phenology at continental scales. Communications Biology 5(1213): https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-022-04131-z
Bayliss, SLJ, M Papeş, JA Schweitzer, JK Bailey. (2022) Aggregate population-level models informed by genetics predict more suitable habitat than traditional species-level model across the range of a widespread riparian tree. PLoS ONE 17(9): e0274892. doi. 10.1371/journal. pone.0274892
Bayliss, SLJ. (2021) Unearthing Tree Symbolism in Song: A Sentiment Analysis. Tennessee Dissertations and Theses.
Bayliss, SLJ, LO Mueller, IM Ware, JA Schweitzer, JK Bailey. (2020). Plant genetic variation drives geographic differences in atmosphere-plant-ecosystem feedbacks. Plant-Environment Interactions 00:1-15. DOI: 10.1002/pei3.10031
Beals, KK, JA Moore, SN Kivlin, SLJ Bayliss, CY Lumibao, LC Moorhead, M Patel, JL Summers, IM Ware, JK Bailey, JA Schweitzer. (2020) Predicting plant-soil feedback in the field: meta-analysis reveals that competition and environmental stress differentially influence PSF. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 8:191. doi: 10.3389/fevo.2020.00191
Van Nuland, ME, J Vincent, IM Ware, LO Mueller, SLJ Bayliss, KK Beals, JA Schweitzer, JK Bailey. (2020) Interspecific trait variation across elevation predicts a widespread tree species’ climate niche and range limits. Ecology & Evolution 00:1-12. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5969
Bayliss, SLJ, ZR Scott, MA Coffroth, CP terHorst. (2019) Genetic variation in Breviolum antillogorgium, a coral reef symbiont, in response to temperature and nutrients. Ecology and Evolution 9(5): 2803-13. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4959
Ware IM, Fitzpatrick C, Senthilnathan A, Bayliss SLJ, Beals KK, Mueller LO, Summers JL, Wooliver RC, Van Nuland ME, et al. (2018) Feedbacks link ecosystem ecology and evolution across spatial and temporal scales: Empirical evidence and future directions. Functional Ecology 33:31-42. DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13267
Bayliss, SLJ, CP terHorst, JA Lau. (2017) Testing genotypic variation of an invasive plant species in response to soil disturbance and herbivory. Oecologia 183:1135. DOI 10.1007/s00442-017-3820-9
Bayliss, SL. (2016) Genotype-by-environment interactions and diversity-function relationships of the important reef symbiont, Symbiodinium antillogorgium, across a range of nutrient environments. CSUN Electronic Theses & Dissertations. http://scholarworks.csun.edu/handle/10211.3/171754
Bayliss, SLJ, C Anderson, ML Dudley, CM Litton, C Giardina, S Pau. (2026). Decoupled litterfall and canopy signals reveal species-specific leaf phenology in a wet Hawaiian tropical forest. Biotropica 58, no. 4: e70237.
(preprint) SLJ Bayliss, IM Ware, JA Schweitzer, JK Bailey. Climate change velocity drives rapid evolution of foliar phenology in trailing edge populations. BioRxiv doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.04.27.719373
Pau, S, R Slapikas, C Ho, SLJ Bayliss, RC Donnelly, A Abdullahi, BR Helliker, JB Nippert, WJ Riley, CJ Still, ER Wedel, DM Griffith. (2025) Hyperspectral leaf reflectance of grasses varies with evolutionary lineage more than with site. Ecosphere 16(4): https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70257
Bayliss, SLJ, EN Broadbent, AM Almeyda Zambrano, S Cordell, S Pau. (2025) Scale-dependent responses to environmental fluctuations in tropical tree species' crown temperatures. Communications Earth & Environment 6(36). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02030-9
Love, SJ, JD Edwards, CN Barnes, TW d'Entremont, AM Hord, AG Nytko, NB Sero, SLJ Bayliss, SN Kivlin, JK Bailey. (2023) Identifying ecological and evolutionary research targets and risks in climate change studies to break barriers to broad inference. PLOS Climate 2(12): https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pclm.0000320
Bayliss, SLJ, LO Mueller, IM Ware, JA Schweitzer, JK Bailey. (2022) Stacked distribution models predict climate-driven loss of variation in leaf phenology at continental scales. Communications Biology 5(1213): https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-022-04131-z
Bayliss, SLJ, M Papeş, JA Schweitzer, JK Bailey. (2022) Aggregate population-level models informed by genetics predict more suitable habitat than traditional species-level model across the range of a widespread riparian tree. PLoS ONE 17(9): e0274892. doi. 10.1371/journal. pone.0274892
Bayliss, SLJ. (2021) Unearthing Tree Symbolism in Song: A Sentiment Analysis. Tennessee Dissertations and Theses.
Bayliss, SLJ, LO Mueller, IM Ware, JA Schweitzer, JK Bailey. (2020). Plant genetic variation drives geographic differences in atmosphere-plant-ecosystem feedbacks. Plant-Environment Interactions 00:1-15. DOI: 10.1002/pei3.10031
Beals, KK, JA Moore, SN Kivlin, SLJ Bayliss, CY Lumibao, LC Moorhead, M Patel, JL Summers, IM Ware, JK Bailey, JA Schweitzer. (2020) Predicting plant-soil feedback in the field: meta-analysis reveals that competition and environmental stress differentially influence PSF. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 8:191. doi: 10.3389/fevo.2020.00191
Van Nuland, ME, J Vincent, IM Ware, LO Mueller, SLJ Bayliss, KK Beals, JA Schweitzer, JK Bailey. (2020) Interspecific trait variation across elevation predicts a widespread tree species’ climate niche and range limits. Ecology & Evolution 00:1-12. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5969
Bayliss, SLJ, ZR Scott, MA Coffroth, CP terHorst. (2019) Genetic variation in Breviolum antillogorgium, a coral reef symbiont, in response to temperature and nutrients. Ecology and Evolution 9(5): 2803-13. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4959
Ware IM, Fitzpatrick C, Senthilnathan A, Bayliss SLJ, Beals KK, Mueller LO, Summers JL, Wooliver RC, Van Nuland ME, et al. (2018) Feedbacks link ecosystem ecology and evolution across spatial and temporal scales: Empirical evidence and future directions. Functional Ecology 33:31-42. DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13267
Bayliss, SLJ, CP terHorst, JA Lau. (2017) Testing genotypic variation of an invasive plant species in response to soil disturbance and herbivory. Oecologia 183:1135. DOI 10.1007/s00442-017-3820-9
Bayliss, SL. (2016) Genotype-by-environment interactions and diversity-function relationships of the important reef symbiont, Symbiodinium antillogorgium, across a range of nutrient environments. CSUN Electronic Theses & Dissertations. http://scholarworks.csun.edu/handle/10211.3/171754